lunes, 8 de febrero de 2010

El inodoro de los déficits (primera parte)


Alfredo Triff

Con el gobierno casi paralizado por la técnica REPU de ganar puntos a toda costa, los compuestos químico/políticos reaccionan entre sí, causando... la PESTE, momento elástico y pegajoso que caracteriza la vida política en EE.UU.

El propio Paul Krugman ha manifestado que ha sido un error  de Obama no recordarle a la gente lo suficiente el estado de cosas que vivíamos hace apenas un año y unas semanas, cuando Jorgi-Bush soltó la papa-caliente de la presidencia en 2009, con el país en el inodoro de los déficits.

8 años de fetidez bushista/cheneysta. Resultado: En febrero de 2009, un mes depués de la toma de Obama el deficit del país era de $1 billón (un millón de millones) de dolores.

Y si el déficit americano fuera una torta ¿cómo la picamos?

La mitad se llama Liber-TINA-je. Jorgi-Bush gobernaba como un socialista: a manos llenas. Primero, le redujo el impuesto a los ricos (i.e. el partido), después, se inventó dos guerras... y a manos llenas: promulgando la política de recetas para Medicare.

La otra mitad del déficit es resultado de la vida loca de Wall Street que desató la recesión de 2008-2010.

Para evitar la peste, Jorgi-Bush -y después Obama- iniciaron la política de rescate: los bancos llamados "too big to fail" y las compañías de automóviles. Pero si el gobierno, de acuerdo al principio libertario no debe intervenir en la economía. What's going on? Los REPU no aplicaron su legado ideológico libertario de dejar que el mundo se joda y todo vuelva milagrosamente a su lugar a causa de LA MANO INVISIBLE. No. Jorgi-Bush actuó como todo un keynesiano. Eso impidió la catástrofe, pero la recesión se ha pro-lon-ga-do y cientos de miles de millones en supuestos ingresos fiscales se han e-va-po-ra-do.

LA PESTE: ¿Por qué seguimos en el inodoro financiero? Es muy fácil gobernar sin regular el exceso capitalista (ejemplo: la técnica REPU es tener a la gente contenta y que el país de joda y ahora que no tienen poder invocan sobriedad). Nuestro libertarianismo miope facilita la caída del gigante como merengue sobre torta. Es casi un sermón teológico: Deja que la gente haga lo que quiera mientras sea legal, que la economía se cura ella misma. "LEGAL" significa legislar para los ricos, para estimular la economía con el billete ajeno*.

La verdad es que esa política fue apoyada por Clinton (aunque esos eran años de prosperidad). Si no fuera por estas calamidades humanas de juicio y conveniencia, nuestro deficit sería mucho menor. Nuestra población ha envejecido, los gastos de salud no paran. Cuando los baby boomers se jubilen ¿quién va a pagar todo eso? ¿Seguir metiendo cuento en las fiestecitas del té y volver a las andadas? GASTO Y GASTO ¿sin subida de impuestos?

¿De dónde sale el billete?

Los REPU: CAE DEL CIELO COMO MANÄ.

Lo peor que puede hacerse cuando se vive en ese estado de economía disfuncional es paralizar los proyectos de inversión gubernamental. Ergo: Jodidos estamos, pero ahora hay que hacer que el enfermo se levante de la cama y camine (y luego pedirle que ahorre un dinerito para el futuro). De nada vale que el gobierno pare el estímulo súbitamente. Eso no hace más que hundir la economía (ahí está Japón que sigue en el inodoro). Eso es lo que acaba de hacer Obama para apaciguar el humor de los REPU y sus zombies.
___________
*La marca del capitalismo financiero que nos hemos inventado: "fusionar" (take over) y "adquisionar" (acquisitions), creando MANÄ para los REPU. ¿Y por qué ahora? Contradicen la ley fundamental de los fisiócratas del siglo XVIII: el capitalismo ideal funciona con un sistema de chequeo interno de oferta y demanda con igualdad en la competencia. Aunque la competencia sea fiera, debe haber el mismo derecho a ella por cada cual que desee jugar al mercado. La política financiera de de-regulation desde los 80 es coartar ese juego. He aquí la idea del capital REPU (contra el capitalismo fisiocrático liberal) al desnudo. 1- la oligopolía ahoga la competencia, 2- la política de fusión de CEOS desmadrados estimula en incesto corporativo, 3- sobrevaloración de las fusiones, ejemplo: AOL Warner, 4- subida artificial de precios, 5- absurda valoración de los objetivos económicos y financieros, 6- tendencia a inflar la proyección de ganancia. En otras palabras, HUYE, QUE CUNDE....................... LA PESTE.

19 comentarios:

Anónimo dijo...

Muy bueno y muy simpatico.

Anónimo dijo...

y ahora son 4 trilliones sin "Bushita", asi que deja el noviascio con Obama ya.

Anónimo dijo...

BTW, speaking of financial waste, the superbowl commercials cost 2.5 million to start... So why a Federal Census 2010 commercial during the Super Bowl,Federal governmemt waste? Did we pay for that one also as part of a stimulus program?
Let me guess, otro Bushista idea en que Obama no sabia nada.

HO DAT

Anónimo dijo...

It's the american way folks!

Anónimo dijo...

ESTAMOS EN TAPARRABOS, DE PINGA.

La Mano Poderosa dijo...

NEWSFLASH!
Let's get past all this bull shit...
The country is being run by the lobbyist'$ group$. Yep, in both parties, and they control the Executive and all of Congress, everything else said is just a smoke screen.
MONEY TALKS, THE PRESIDENT AND CONGRESS LISTEN AND OBEY!

$$$$$$$$$$$$$

A.T. dijo...

Yes, Mano, agree is both parties, only that REPUS now have paralyzed the government.

william Rios dijo...

Abajo Batista!!! y abajo Bu!!!!

La Mano Poderosa dijo...
Este comentario ha sido eliminado por el autor.
La Mano Poderosa dijo...

Obama's 2010 budget: deficit soars amid job spending
Mon, Feb 1 2010
By Alister Bull and Jeff Mason

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama pledged on Monday to halve a record 2010 budget deficit by the end of his first term in office, but made tackling double-digit unemployment his immediate priority with a spending plan that risked public ire and a rough battle in Congress.

Criticized by Republicans for raising taxes on wealthy Americans, Obama is under pressure to convince investors and vital creditors like China that he has a credible plan to control the U.S. deficit and debt over time.

"We won't be able to bring down this deficit overnight, given that the recovery is still taking hold," Obama said after laying out $3.8 trillion in spending plans for the fiscal year to September 30, 2011.

"We will continue, for example, to do what it takes to create jobs. That is reflected in my budget. It is essential," he said in a televised statement from the White House.

Obama's blueprint now goes to a Congress deeply split on how to handle the twin woes of a massive deficit and high unemployment amid a still fragile emergence from recession.

Lawmakers girding for the annual budget battle will be in no mood to anger voters ahead of congressional elections in November, and could reshape it extensively during negotiations that may stretch into the year.

The budget forecast a $1.56 trillion deficit in 2010, or 10.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), up from a 9.9 percent share of GDP in 2009.

But the shortfall was forecast to shrink to 8.3 percent of GDP in 2011. By the time his term ends in January 2013, it would have halved from the level Obama inherited on taking office last year, keeping a key pledge. That supposes Obama gets Congress to agree to spending cuts and that the economy rebounds strongly enough to sharply lift tax revenues.

Even if all goes to plan, the budget still forecasts U.S. public debt rising above 71 percent of GDP by 2013, up from 53 percent in 2009, and almost 80 percent by 2020 -- levels that could spook investors.

Financial markets largely ignored the budget numbers, which had been extensively previewed, but analysts were not assured.

"We're playing with fire. Foreign countries are noticing our governance failures," said Bill Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think-tank.

"The dollar's standing as the world's reserve currency and our economy's standing as the world's leader are both in jeopardy," he said.

The deficit's rise in 2010 was partly due to the $787 billion stimulus package Obama pushed through Congress early last year to fight the recession.

Obama, a Democrat, said he had inherited the financial mess from his Republican predecessor President George W. Bush, but did not pretend that the budget would please many people.

"Budget day is like tax day -- it's never fun. No matter what, it's big numbers," he said.
To be continued...

La Mano Poderosa dijo...

REPUBLICAN IRE

Republicans seized on the grim fiscal forecast to criticize Obama's handling of the economy.

Senator Judd Gregg, the top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, warned the country was sinking into a "quagmire" of debt and said Obama's stimulus plan had failed to create jobs.

"These circumstances call for a bold, game-changing budget that will turn things around, put in place a plan to restrain spending, reduce the debt and tackle the big entitlement programs that are growing out-of-control," he said. "Instead, the president has sent us more of the same."

The budget outlined some expected savings from the reform of Medicare and Medicaid entitlement programs that care for elderly and poor Americans. But his health reforms have stalled in Congress and Obama did not dwell on healthcare in detail.

Republicans complain the projected improvements in the country's fiscal position come mainly through higher taxes and stronger growth, while spending emerges largely unscathed.

Obama plans to allow tax cuts to expire on affluent American families who make more than $250,000 a year, which is expected to raise $678 billion over the next decade.

He will extract $90 billion from big banks with a fee to recoup taxpayer losses for bailing out the industry during the financial crisis during 2008. Scrapping subsidies to oil, coal and natural gas companies will raise a further $40 billion.

Obama also plans to save $250 billion between 2011 and 2020 by curbing 120 federal projects, including $23 billion next year. These cuts included the country's powerfully symbolic space mission to return to the moon, but the White House says it will also invest more in education and research.

Polls show voters are worried by the weak condition of U.S. finances, and Obama plans to create a bipartisan fiscal commission to figure out options on taxes and spending.

GROWTH FORECASTS

Much of the improvement in the fiscal picture is driven by underlying forecasts in the budget for solid economic growth -- which will not necessarily be shared by all economists.

The economy is projected to expand by 2.7 percent in 2010, but then pull at an above-average 3.8 percent in 2011 and rise above 4 percent for the following 3 years.

The budget also assumes unemployment will remain high, edging to 8.2 percent in 2012 from 10 percent this year, while inflation stays mild and interest rates rise only slightly.

Discontent over the jobless rate translated into a slap for Obama's Democrats in an election last month for the U.S. Senate in Massachusetts, costing the party a crucial Senate seat and foreshadowing potentially big losses in the November congressional elections.

Unemployment is a key concern for voters who will elect all 435 members in the House of Representatives and more than a third of the 100 Senate members in November.

To boost jobs, Obama is setting aside $100 billion in 2010 in tax credits aimed at small businesses as well as investments in clean energy and infrastructure, before starting to tighten the country's fiscal belt the following year.

Economists say withdrawing policies aimed at boosting growth too soon helped prolong the Great Depression in the 1930s, a mistake Obama is determined to avoid repeating.

Democrats control both chambers in Congress. But with Republicans united in opposition to Obama's agenda, he still faces a struggle pulling together Democrats -- who badly need to show voters they are taking steps on jobs, but face a voter backlash over aggressive spending to boost the economy.

Reflecting the challenge Obama faced pushing through his domestic agenda in his first year in office, the budget dropped $646 billion in revenues from a cap-and-trade system to curb greenhouse gases -- signaling pessimism Congress will pass a bill with this provision.

(Additional reporting by Caren Bohan, editing by Frances Kerry)

La Mano Poderosa dijo...

AT, FOR A YEAR THE DEMS HAD THE MAJORITY RULE, IN EXECUTIVE (OBAMA) AND LEGISLATIVE (HOUSE AND CONGRESS), SO THE PARALYZED GOVERNMENT WERE THE DEMOCRATS,FOR ONE ENTIRE YEAR. NO EXCUSE, THEY STILL HOLD A MAYORITY. TRY AGAIN.

La Mano Poderosa dijo...

IS KRUGMAN ALL YOU READ? TRY OTHER SOURCES TO FORMAT AN ORIGINAL CONCEPT.

La Mano Poderosa dijo...

NEWS FLASH-

The Outstanding Public Debt as of 08 Feb 2010 at 11:36:57 PM GMT is:

The estimated population of the United States is 307,804,403
so each citizen's share of this debt is $40,146.93.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$3.88 billion per day since September 28, 2007!

La Mano Poderosa dijo...

I guess the Chinese will soon be in control of US policy, since they are the ones loaning us the money. Right now we pay in Federal and State taxes 31% of our salary, within a decade we will pay out 45% of our salaries to just cover currently existing committments. So do the math, when you retire, if nothing else is added in a decade, "working" americans will pay 45% in taxes, and the balance will be to eat, pay health insurance, mortgages, education, clothing, etc. Now, if we continue to add programs, then just rachet up the cost for every "working" american. Eventually, why work, just live off the government, makes sense doesn't it?
Then we can convert to a communist system, and follow the Cuban model, the great dialectic and Marxist dogma...
BTW, enjoy todays luxuries, such as a condo, car, and wine, cause soon it will be just that, a real luxury.
Consejo del dia-
Bebe hoy, y cagate en mañana!

Anónimo dijo...

Mano coje un respiro men.

R.L.R. dijo...

El post esta muy argumentado pero la caricatura sintetiza genialmente lo sucedido y lo hace hasta con acento tejano.
Mano, si el congreso y todo está controlado por los billete$$$, entonces de que sirve esa mayoría demócrata? El poder republicano les dio a los peces grandes recortes de taxes y prebendas y ahora es payback time...

La Mano Poderosa dijo...

OK.... listo de nuevo!

La Mano Poderosa dijo...

JR,
Richter's film points out the reality of the great depression, but note that during this period, Germany was undergoing a massive inflation, and a total socio-economic collapse. These were caused mostly from the punitive repercussions of WWI (reperations, and the ever growing inbalance and rapid inflation which it created for the German nation. This made the German Mark worthless (hyperinflation), speeding a process of unpredictable outcomes. As some would say, "it would take a handwagon full of Deutch Marks to pay for a loaf of bread."
Even coins were made out of ceramic, since minting metal ones became too costly (I happen to have some). To say history repeats itself is an understatement, yet, let us not forget that it was the great depression, combined with the punitive agreements against Germany from the Treaty of Versailles of 1919, which helped catapult a new unknown man into the German political stratosphere. This man, which promised all, to restore Germany with prosperity, hope, change, and even a car for all the people, affordable and available for all, a folks wagon (Volkswagen), became a turning point in world history. A new Germany would be created. This man was elected by a democratic goverment (controlled by the "brown shirts"), and eventually rose to almost become the new empire of all of europe. This man was Adolf Hitler, and serves as a warning and example, in that when a democratic society despairs, the crisis mentality can give way to an unpredictable and dangerous consequences, with destructive ends. Many which are still felt today, cause and effect.