viernes, 28 de agosto de 2009

Los déficits han salvado al mundo


Revelador artículo de Paul Krugman en el NYTimes:

¿Qué está pasando con la economía? De acuerdo a Krugman, la cosa no está tan mala como pinta. Puede que el déficit ayude la economía. Ejemplo: el déficit actual de las economías desarrolladas del mundo ha salvado al mundo de una recesión aún más profunda. Preocupante, pero no catastrófico. El asunto que debe preocuparnos no es tanto la economía sino la interpretación de esta por los políticos. Krugman pregunta: ¿Pueden los políticos de ambas partes demostrar madurez? La historia ya la sabemos. Primero, la fuerte caída en los ingresos fiscales, el desempleo. Luego, los llamados “bailouts” que ahora son parte del déficit. ¿Qué hubiera pasado si el gobierno no hubiese intervenido? La receta Krugman:
“Lo digo y lo repito, los déficits han salvado al mundo”.

De acuerdo al Nóbel en economía, está más que claro que hay que amarrarse los cinturones (al menos por dos años). Hoy por hoy, vivimos en una especie de “purgatorio económico”. ¿Y la deuda? Mala, preocupante, sin duda. Pero aunque $9 billones es mucho dinero, podemos darnos el lujo de afrontar la deuda en lugar de colapsar. Krugmaniamente hablando, el interés real de la deuda adicional (después de ajustes de inflación), es alrededor de 1% del PNB, o 5% de los ingresos federales. Conclusión: No es una carga tan abrumadora. Podemos darnos el lujo de puede pedir prestado -a largo plazo- a una tasa de interés de menos de 3.5% (una tasa baja en términos históricos). Según las proyecciones de la Casa Blanca, para 2019, la deuda federal neta será de 70% del PNB. Nada bueno, pero esa deuda onerosa ya le ha caído encima a países desarrollados (con gobiernos relativamente débiles) como Bélgica en los 90 (con una deuda neta 118% del PNB) e Italia, con 114% del PNB.
¿No debemos estar preocupados?

“Sí, pero no tanto de la economía, sino de los políticos.”

13 comentarios:

La Mano Poderosa dijo...

The eye-popping national debt surpassed $11 trillion Monday, the largest in U.S. history.

The new Treasury Department figures on the national debt were released as the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office is expected to project that the annual budget deficit will be higher than previously estimated by the White House's Office of Management and Budget. The debt, which refers to the cumulative amount of money the government owes, hit $10.9 trillion on Friday.

The whopping number has major ramifications for President Barack Obama, who is trying to push through a raft of big-ticket bills on health care, energy, education and climate change — while also attempting to stabilize the swooning economy.

Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), chairman of the Budget Committee, said Tuesday that the numbers could force Congress to make "adjustments" to Obama's $3.6 trillion budget plan.

La Mano Poderosa dijo...

National Debt Hits Record $11 Trillion
by Mark Knoller
(AP / CBS)The Federal Government’s flood of red ink hit another high-water mark as the Treasury Department quietly reported today that the National Debt hit $11-trillion for the first time ever.

To be exact, the Debt now stands at $11,033,157,578,669.78. Divide it by the U.S. population and it comes up to over $36,000 in debt for every man, woman and child among us.

And the government is running up mountains of debt with increasing speed. It took just over 5 ½ months for Uncle Sam to go another trillion dollars deeper in debt since hitting $10-trillion last September 30th. It’s the fastest jump in U.S. history.

The hundreds of billions of dollars being spent as part of the federal bailout of the financial markets is a leading factor in the rapid increase. Over $400-billion in debt has been accrued in the 57 days since President Obama took office.

And the federal budget he unveiled last month projects even faster increases in the National Debt. It’ll hit $12.7-trillion by the end of the fiscal year on September 30th. The Administration’s four year estimate shows that by the end of September 2012, the Debt will have soared to $16.2-trillion – which amounts to nearly 100% of the projected Gross Domestic Product that year.

The U.S. is running up so much debt so quickly, some investors are worried. Over the weekend, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who says his country has about a trillion dollars invested in U.S. Treasury notes, said he wanted a guarantee.

President Obama said Wen’s got nothing to worry about.

“Not just the Chinese government, but every investor, can have absolute confidence in the soundness of investments in the United States,” he said on Saturday.

That’s because the U.S. government’s power to tax stands behind all of its debt. If Uncle Sam ever needs a bailout, then as now, taxpayers get nailed.

It took the U.S. government 191 years – from 1791 until 1982 – to run up its first trillion dollars in debt. The second and third trillions got on the scoreboard much more quickly – each in just four years.

By the time George W. Bush was inaugurated in 2001, the National Debt stood at $5.7-trillion. He ran up more debt faster than nearly all of his predecessors combined: just under $4.9-trillion.

The National Debt stood at $10.6-trillon on the day Barack Obama took office. But if his budget projections are accurate, he’ll run up nearly as much government debt in four years as President Bush did in eight.

La Mano Poderosa dijo...

By the way, if OBAMA'S National Care Bill goes through, conservative estimates place the National debt over 20 Trillion!

DO THE MATH!

A.T. dijo...

Mano: Yes but no. I guess it depends how you see it. Either blame Obama for the 11 trillion, or thank him for biting the bullet and easing the crisis. Read the article. The deficit and the debt are worrisome but not catastrophic. Japan, Italy, Belgium are examples. I prefer to owe money and be in good health to pay it back rather than the opposite.

Inkieta dijo...

Eso! Amarrarse los cinturones que no hay mal que dure 100 anios.

Arriba corazones!!!

Feliz Viernes, Tumiami. (I'm always close by, AT.)

Feminista dijo...

Mano: Afloja la mano.

Sólo te falta decir que el déficit es culpa de Obama. Qué interés tiene un presidente que como bien dices acaba de tomar posesión de endeudar al país. No te olvides que el primer bailout ocurre bajo el mandato de Bush. Obama le ha hecho frente a la crisis, y la única manera de afrontar la crisis era con una intervención gubernamental. ¿Qué hubieran hecho los republicanos? Dejavu de 1929!

Anónimo dijo...

El capitalismo y el comunismo son un desastre. Y que nos queda?

Anónimo dijo...

FEMI,
I am actually qouting credible liberal and factual realities. If you doubt me, look it up. The Federal Govt. has a website which can inform you to the day.
La Mano

La Mano Poderosa dijo...

Fellow bloggers, here is a web address with the Federal Govt. Financial clock meter. You can see the $ fly by the second...

http://zfacts.com/p/461.html

La Mano Poderosa dijo...
Este comentario ha sido eliminado por el autor.
La Mano Poderosa dijo...

TRY THIS-

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

U.S. TREASURY DEPT. WEBSITE.- NATIONAL DEBT DAILY REPORT.

La Mano Poderosa dijo...

TIC-TIC-TIC

http://zfacts.com/p/461.html

La Mano Poderosa dijo...

Carbon Dioxiode emissions clock-

http://zfacts.com/p/640.html